Belfiore, a principal with residential real estate research firm Zonda, is also projecting:

• 28,500 new permits in 2021

• 30,500 in 2022

• 31,500 in 2023 and 2024.

While supply constraints continue to be a challenge for the Phoenix housing market, Belfiore is optimistic about demand as well as population and job growth.

He points to employment data projecting Phoenix not losing as many jobs as previously projected or any other areas in 2020 because of the COVID-19 pandemic and expectations of future job growth in the region.

Belfiore said Moody’s Analytics is predicting Phoenix will lose 47,400 jobs this year but will gain 49,000 jobs in 2021 and the growth will climb to 78,500 jobs being created regionally in 2023.

“The job market is preparing to surge,” Belfiore said. “That’s optimistic.”

Arizona’s economy and housing market could also see gains as small and large businesses as well as more professional and skilled workers leave California, the Pacific Northwest, Chicago and New York over costs, frustrations with pandemic restrictions and social unrest in some of those markets.

Historically low mortgage interest rates spurred home sales in the Phoenix and Tucson markets this year. Belfiore despite all the stresses of 2020 local job losses are not as severe as first worried.

“We’re only down 47,400 jobs,” he said.